Nicholls St.

Conference:	Slnd
Expected RPI:	145.0
Current RPI:	145
Expected SOS:	243
Current SOS:	243
Current Record:	17-11
Expected Record:	17-11
Current Conf Record:	15-4
Expected Conf Record:	15-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	17-0
Current OOC Record:	2-7
Expected OOC Record:	2-7
Expected OOC RPI:	170
Expected OOC SOS:	23

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-11	145.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nicholls St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	UT Rio Grande Valley (229.0)	WAC	A	106-111	W	100%
11-14	Villanova (2.0)	BE	A	113-77	L	0%
11-19	Western Kentucky (39.0)	CUSA	A	100-86	L	0%
11-23	Presbyterian (319.0)	BSth	N	76-64	W	100%
11-24	UMBC (111.0)	AE	A	89-88	L	0%
12-1	Louisiana Lafayette (63.0)	SB	H	80-105	L	0%
12-3	Idaho (133.0)	BSky	H	68-79	L	0%
12-18	Tulane (175.0)	Amer	A	76-69	L	0%
12-23	Seattle (165.0)	WAC	A	95-89	L	0%
12-28	Northwestern St. (342.0)	Slnd	H	87-46	W	100%
12-30	Incarnate Word (347.0)	Slnd	H	77-60	W	100%
1-3	Stephen F. Austin (104.0)	Slnd	A	81-64	L	0%
1-6	Houston Baptist (345.0)	Slnd	A	71-72	W	100%
1-10	McNeese St. (297.0)	Slnd	H	85-80	W	100%
1-13	Central Arkansas (223.0)	Slnd	H	86-79	W	100%
1-16	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (326.0)	Slnd	H	91-61	W	100%
1-24	Lamar (230.0)	Slnd	A	74-79	W	100%
1-27	Southeastern Louisiana (150.0)	Slnd	H	63-67	L	0%
2-3	New Orleans (239.0)	Slnd	A	64-81	W	100%
2-7	Abilene Christian (260.0)	Slnd	A	65-69	W	100%
2-10	Houston Baptist (345.0)	Slnd	H	94-67	W	100%
2-14	Sam Houston St. (206.0)	Slnd	H	73-72	W	100%
2-17	Central Arkansas (223.0)	Slnd	A	83-87	W	100%
2-21	McNeese St. (297.0)	Slnd	A	79-96	W	100%
2-24	New Orleans (239.0)	Slnd	H	78-64	W	100%
2-28	Northwestern St. (342.0)	Slnd	A	70-73	W	100%
3-3	Southeastern Louisiana (150.0)	Slnd	A	69-57	L	0%
3-9	Stephen F. Austin (104.0)	Slnd	N	66-78	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nicholls St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Nicholls St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Nicholls St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Nicholls St.	Slnd	26.32	26.32	64.39	64.39	7.58	7.58
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	4.57	4.57	60.71	60.71	0.98	0.98
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	4.50	4.50	78.57	78.57	2.57	2.57
New Orleans	Slnd	4.49	4.49	46.15	46.15	-0.35	-0.35
Central Arkansas	Slnd	4.47	4.47	53.33	53.33	0.30	0.30
McNeese St.	Slnd	4.43	4.43	34.78	34.78	-1.35	-1.35
Northwestern St.	Slnd	4.42	4.42	8.70	8.70	-3.65	-3.65
Houston Baptist	Slnd	4.33	4.33	11.54	11.54	-3.33	-3.33
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	2.80	2.80	53.57	53.57	0.20	0.20
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	2.75	2.75	32.00	32.00	-0.99	-0.99
Lamar	Slnd	2.72	2.72	55.56	55.56	0.30	0.30
Incarnate Word	Slnd	2.65	2.65	13.04	13.04	-1.96	-1.96
Abilene Christian	Slnd	2.64	2.64	46.15	46.15	-0.20	-0.20
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	1.98	1.98	80.00	80.00	1.19	1.19
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	1.94	1.94	44.83	44.83	-0.20	-0.20
Seattle	WAC	1.88	1.88	55.17	55.17	0.19	0.19
Tulane	Amer	1.85	1.85	43.33	43.33	-0.25	-0.25
Idaho	BSky	1.82	1.82	67.86	67.86	0.65	0.65
Villanova	BE	1.81	1.81	87.88	87.88	1.37	1.37
Western Kentucky	CUSA	1.81	1.81	68.75	68.75	0.68	0.68
Presbyterian	BSth	1.79	1.79	28.57	28.57	-0.77	-0.77
UMBC	AE	1.79	1.79	66.67	66.67	0.60	0.60
SMU	Amer	0.28	0.28	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.25	0.25	46.43	46.43	-0.02	-0.02
Texas St.	SB	0.25	0.25	41.94	41.94	-0.04	-0.04
Houston	Amer	0.23	0.23	78.79	78.79	0.13	0.13
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.21	0.21	33.33	33.33	-0.07	-0.07
Little Rock	SB	0.20	0.20	20.00	20.00	-0.12	-0.12
Rice	CUSA	0.19	0.19	17.24	17.24	-0.12	-0.12
Chicago St.	WAC	0.18	0.18	3.33	3.33	-0.17	-0.17
UMKC	WAC	0.16	0.16	27.59	27.59	-0.07	-0.07
South Alabama	SB	0.15	0.15	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Utah Valley	WAC	0.15	0.15	65.52	65.52	0.05	0.05
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.15	0.15	83.33	83.33	0.10	0.10
Tulsa	Amer	0.15	0.15	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.14	0.14	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Providence	BE	0.14	0.14	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
North Texas	CUSA	0.13	0.13	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
UTSA	CUSA	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.12	0.12	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Longwood	BSth	0.12	0.12	13.33	13.33	-0.09	-0.09
Baylor	B12	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.12	0.12	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.12	0.12	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
St. John's	BE	0.12	0.12	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.12	0.12	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Temple	Amer	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	22.22	22.22	-0.06	-0.06
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Colorado St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
UTEP	CUSA	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Campbell	BSth	0.09	0.09	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.09	0.09	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.09	0.09	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.09	0.09	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.09	0.09	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.09	0.09	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.09	0.09	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
LSU	SEC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
UCF	Amer	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Hartford	AE	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
UMass Lowell	AE	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Vermont	AE	0.09	0.09	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
California	P12	0.09	0.09	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Charlotte	CUSA	0.08	0.08	17.86	17.86	-0.05	-0.05
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Marshall	CUSA	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Butler	BE	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
San Diego St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Texas	B12	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.07	0.07	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.07	0.07	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.06	0.06	87.88	87.88	0.05	0.05
Oakland	Horz	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.05	-0.05
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Santa Clara	WCC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Missouri	SEC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Samford	SC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Valparaiso	MVC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Albany	AE	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
East Carolina	Amer	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia St.	SB	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Maine	AE	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
New Hampshire	AE	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
South Florida	Amer	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.06	0.06	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Oregon	P12	0.06	0.06	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Connecticut	Amer	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.05	0.05	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
Creighton	BE	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Xavier	BE	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Florida	SEC	0.04	0.04	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
USC Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.03	-0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	CAA	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
VMI	SC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Cincinnati	Amer	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Maryland	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.03	0.03	26.92	26.92	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Penn	Ivy	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00